02 Nov 2026, New Delhi | Nirmesh Singh; The threat of a potentially powerful El Niño is gathering strength, raising concerns over its impact on India’s rabi crops and agricultural output. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the phenomenon could become one of the strongest since at least 1950, with implications for global temperature and rainfall patterns through the coming months.

The warning comes at a critical time for Indian agriculture, as farmers prepare for the 2026-27 rabi season amid concerns over soil moisture, water availability and the possibility of erratic rainfall. Rainfed regions and crops dependent on residual monsoon moisture could face particular risks if the developing El Niño alters winter rainfall patterns and raises temperatures.However, the centre’s response to the developing El Niño threat has so far emphasised continuous monitoring and the use of existing preparedness mechanisms, rather than announcing a new, WMO-triggered agricultural action plan.

The WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasts that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach record levels during October-November-December 2026, with El Niño expected to strengthen towards a peak around December. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has said there is a near-100 per cent likelihood that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027 and could rank among the strongest episodes recorded since 1950.

The warning has brought renewed focus on India’s preparedness. However, the government’s own assessment of agricultural vulnerability was undertaken several months ago, in June and July, and questions remain over how far that exercise has translated into specific, district-level preparedness.

In July, the Centre identified 315 districts as potentially vulnerable to climate-related agricultural stress. Of these, 111 districts had less than 25 per cent of their cultivated area under irrigation, making them particularly exposed to rainfall fluctuations. The government also said District Agriculture Contingency Plans had been updated for 262 districts.

A high-level review chaired by the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, P.K. Mishra, on July 7 brought together more than 15 ministries to coordinate preparedness measures. The Agriculture Ministry also asked the Indian Council of Agricultural Research and Krishi Vigyan Kendras to support farmers through advisories and standard operating procedures.

But the extent of preparedness came under scrutiny on August 5, when the government told the Lok Sabha that the Ministry of Earth Sciences had not issued any district-wise risk and impact assessment or guidelines to states for tackling the effects of El Niño in 2026.

The distinction is significant. Identifying districts with low irrigation coverage can indicate general vulnerability, but it does not establish which crops, sowing windows or farming systems in each district are most at risk from a particular climate event. Nor does an existing contingency plan necessarily provide an El Niño-specific response.

The concern was also reflected at the Agriculture Ministry’s national rabi conference in Delhi, where Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra described the coming season as challenging, particularly for rainfed areas, and cautioned that foodgrain production could be affected. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan urged states to prepare water budgets, plan crops according to soil moisture and irrigation availability, promote diversification and ensure the timely availability of quality seeds.

The risks are not uniform across the country. Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Telangana have substantial rainfed farming areas that could be exposed to moisture stress. Crops such as gram, mustard, lentil and sorghum may be affected by inadequate soil moisture or delayed sowing. A warmer winter could also increase the risk of terminal heat stress in wheat during February and March.

The potential impact extends beyond production. Lower yields of pulses and oilseeds could affect market supplies and farm incomes, while higher irrigation requirements could raise cultivation costs. For small and marginal farmers with limited access to irrigation, credit and insurance, a poor season could further weaken already fragile financial buffers.

A September 8 report by CRISIL, The New Economics of Rainfall Shocks, highlighted the uneven distribution of rainfall during the 2026 monsoon, describing it as the most spatially distorted in a decade. Its Rainfall Distortion Index recorded a deficiency score of 14.4. The report pointed to a shift in the nature of agricultural risk—from losses in acreage towards losses in crop yields—and identified cotton, bajra, maize, tur, groundnut and soybean among the crops vulnerable to rainfall shocks.

The government has also flagged operational challenges in agricultural preparedness. At the rabi conference, Chouhan raised concerns over delays by states in communicating seed requirements and lifting supplies, gaps in Kisan Credit Card coverage among small and marginal farmers, and weaknesses in procurement arrangements.

El Niño does not automatically translate into drought or crop failure in India. Its impact depends on several factors, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, regional rainfall distribution, reservoir levels, irrigation access and local weather conditions. Nevertheless, the possibility of a strong episode makes advance planning particularly important.

The key challenge now is to convert the Centre’s earlier identification of vulnerable districts into actionable plans: crop-specific advisories, timely seed distribution, water management, access to credit and insurance, and contingency measures tailored to local conditions. With the WMO’s warning pointing to a strengthening El Niño, the question is whether these measures will reach vulnerable farming communities before the effects of climate stress are felt in the fields.
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